Cambridge experts behind gloomy 4,000 deaths a day projection DROP their estimate and say Covid fatalities will stay around 600 per day in next fortnight
Cambridge University academics whose gloomy warnings of 4,000 deaths a day spooked ministers into imposing England's second lockdown have dropped their estimate again. The 'Nowcast' team, which feeds into Number 10's advisory panel SAGE, estimates there will be between 380 and 610 coronavirus deaths on November 21, based on current trends. For reference, the academics last week predicted that the number of deaths each day was likely to reach between 380 and 710 on November 14. The figure is a far cry from the 4,000 deaths per day estimate that the same team had given to SAGE on October 9, which spooked ministers into calling for England's second national lockdown. In a paper presented to the SAGE sub-group SPI-M, the team warned daily deaths could hit 4,010 by December 1. Sir Patrick Vallance came under intense scrutiny for 'frightening' the public and MPs with the projection, which was presented in Boris Johnson's TV press conference to announce the